A majority of Americans believe that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. But the story is more complicated in the states where the future of abortion policy is likely to be decided if — as is now expected — the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade.
States with abortion bans designed to be activated if Roe is overturned
Where Americans support
or oppose legal abortion
Support legal abortion
Don’t support
+10 pts.
Even
+10 pts.
Where Americans support
or oppose legal abortion
Support legal abortion
Don’t support
+10 pts.
Even
+10 pts.
States with abortion bans designed to be activated if Roe is overturned
Sources: Public Religion Research Institute, Pew Research Center; Guttmacher Institute
State figures are polling averages, weighted by sample size. “Support for legal abortion” represents the difference between those who say abortion should be legal in most or all cases and those who say it should be illegal in most or all cases.
In the states poised to put in new restrictions on abortion, people tend to say that abortion should be mostly or fully illegal, based on a New York Times analysis of large national surveys taken over the last decade.
In the 13 states that have enacted so-called trigger laws, which would immediately or very quickly outlaw abortion if Roe were overturned, 43 percent of adults on average say abortion should be legal in most or all cases, while 52 percent say it should be illegal in most or all cases.
Voters are more divided in the dozen or so states that have pre-Roe bans on the books or that are expected to enact new abortion restrictions if Roe is overturned. In those states — where the fight over abortion is most likely to play out in campaigns or state legislative chambers — an average of 49 percent of adults say abortion should be legal in most or all cases, compared with 45 percent who say otherwise.
Understand the Challenge to Roe v. Wade
The Supreme Court’s decision could be the most consequential to women’s access to abortion since 1973.
An Extraordinary Breach: The leak of a draft opinion suggesting that the justices will end the constitutional right to abortion will be investigated by the Supreme Court marshal, but it’s unlikely the Justice Department will be involved.The Court’s Transformation: As it appears to be close to issuing its ruling in the case of the Mississippi law that could overturn Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court looks increasingly politics-drivenDestroyed Trust: Justice Clarence Thomas addressed the leak, saying that it had done irreparable damage to the Supreme Court.Protests: Following the leak, supporters of abortion rights have staged demonstrations across the country, including outside the homes of several justices.A 17th Century Judge Cited: Lord Matthew Hale, who wrote that women were contractually obligated to husbands, was cited eight times in Justice Samuel Alito’s draft opinion.
That is still somewhat less than the national average of 54 percent who mostly or fully support legalized abortion, compared with 41 percent who mostly or fully oppose it.
The geographic pattern evident in the results suggests that a national outcry over a court decision to overturn Roe might not carry many political consequences in the states where abortions could be immediately restricted. In some of those states, new abortion restrictions may tend to reinforce the political status quo, even as they spark outrage elsewhere in the country.
But in some states, a fight over new abortion restrictions might pose serious political risks for conservatives, perhaps especially in the seven mostly Republican-controlled states that are seen as most likely to enact new restrictions even though a majority of voters tend to support legal abortion.
The public’s views on abortion are notoriously hard to measure, with large segments of the public often seeming to offer muddled or inconsistent answers. Polls consistently show that around two-thirds of Americans support the court’s decision in Roe v. Wade and oppose overturning it. Yet just as many Americans say they support banning abortion in the second trimester, a step barred by Roe. And a more modest majority — usually around 55 percent in broader sets of data — supports legal abortion in most or all cases, while people split almost evenly over whether they consider themselves “pro-choice” or “pro-life.”
The poll question used here — whether the respondent believes abortion should be legal in most or all cases, or illegal in all or most cases — offers only a general sense of a voter’s attitudes on the issue. It may not align exactly with whether a voter or a state electorate would support any particular restriction.
State-by-State Estimates of Adults’ Support for Legal Abortion
| Louisiana | 36% | 59% | -23 | Yes |
| Arkansas | 38% | 57% | -19 | Yes |
| Mississippi | 39% | 55% | -16 | Yes |
| West Virginia | 40% | 55% | -15 | |
| Alabama | 40% | 55% | -15 | |
| Tennessee | 40% | 53% | -13 | Yes |
| Kentucky | 41% | 53% | -12 | Yes |
| Utah | 43% | 53% | -10 | Yes |
| Idaho | 43% | 50% | -6 | Yes |
| South Dakota | 47% | 50% | -4 | Yes |
| North Dakota | 47% | 50% | -3 | Yes |
| Texas | 46% | 48% | -2 | Yes |
| South Carolina | 45% | 47% | -2 | |
| Indiana | 46% | 48% | -2 | |
| Nebraska | 46% | 47% | -2 | |
| Wyoming | 48% | 49% | -1 | Yes |
| Missouri | 47% | 47% | Source |